| agenda 2024, ro – tendințe, prognoze agenda 2024, generale – tendințe, prognoze agenda 2024, internaționale – tendințe, prognoze | riscuri românia 20>30 riscuri globale 20>30 mega-tendințe 2030+ |
2024
Remus Pricopie avertizează asupra riscurilor la care este supusă România. „Rusia defilează prin democrațiile euro-atlantice” – digi24, 30.09.24
The Next 10 Years. Challenges for Romania – Expert Forum, 21.04.24
- Acest raport este menit să declanșeze o discuție serioasă despre schimbările și provocările cu care se va confrunta România în următorul deceniu, inclusiv despre riscurile urgente care necesită acțiuni imediate. El prezintă dileme politice dificile, recunoscând că, deși nimeni nu poate prezice viitorul, anumite tendințe sunt clare. Convergența economică cu UE nu mai poate fi asumată ca un dat.
- În acest raport, identificăm și analizăm riscurile și obstacolele previzibile în calea convergența continuă și rolul sporit al României în UE. Este de datoria liderilor politici și a partidelor în timpul campaniei electorale extinse din 2024 să propună soluții la problemele pe care le ridicăm și să explice cum intenționează să depășească provocările.
Prognoza Erste pentru T1: Lumea, regiunea, riscurile pentru România – CdG, 9.01.24
Rising macroeconomic imbalances are a concern – Allianz/ Country Risk Report, 12.23
- Rising macroeconomic imbalances
- Government instability
- Arrears of state-owned enterprises
- Banking sector vulnerabilities
- High private-sector debt (notably in foreign currency)
- Rapidly rising current account deficit, while net FDI inflows are declining
- High external debt burden
2024, un an cu multe riscuri – Ștefan Popescu, New Money, 15.01.24
Marea Neagră în 2023: Cât de expusă rămâne România? – Sabina Fati, DW, 31.12.23
exerciții de sinteze cu AI
Agenda Strategică : Top 10 Risks for Romania in 2024?
ChatGPT: While I can’t predict the future, I can certainly provide you with some potential risks that Romania might face in 2024. Keep in mind that these are just possibilities and not definitive predictions. Here are ten risks that come to mind:
- Economic instability: Fluctuations in the global economy could impact Romania’s growth and stability.
- Political uncertainty: Changes in leadership or shifts in political ideologies may introduce uncertainty and affect policy decisions.
- Cybersecurity threats: With the increasing reliance on technology, Romania may face cyber threats like hacking or data breaches.
- Climate change: Romania could face extreme weather events, such as floods or droughts, affecting agriculture, infrastructure, and people’s lives.
- Social unrest: Socioeconomic disparities or political disagreements might lead to protests or unrest within the country.
- Energy dependency: Reliance on energy imports could expose Romania to price fluctuations and geopolitical tensions.
- Demographic challenges: Aging population and brain drain might impact the labor market and economy.
- Health crises: Outbreaks of infectious diseases or public health emergencies could pose risks to Romania’s healthcare system.
- Natural disasters: Romania may face the risk of earthquakes, landslides, or other natural disasters, requiring preparedness and response measures.
- Geopolitical tensions: Shifting global dynamics or conflicts in neighboring regions could have implications for Romania’s security and stability.
Remember, these are just potential risks, and proactive measures can help mitigate them.
Agenda Strategică : Top 10 Risks for Romania in 2024?
Bing AI: According to various sources, some of the top risks for Romania in 2024 are:
- Economic conditions, including inflationary pressures. Romania is expected to face a slowdown in growth, high inflation, tight financial conditions and lower external demand in 2023 and 202412. The country is also vulnerable to the impact of the war in Ukraine and the rising global energy and food prices1.
- Ability to attract, develop and retain top talent, manage shifts in labor expectations, and address succession challenges. Romania has a tight labor market, with low unemployment and high wage increases, but also faces unfavorable demographic trends, skills shortages and high emigration rates23. The country needs to invest in human capital development, improve labor market flexibility and foster innovation to remain competitive and productive2.
- Cyber threats. Romania is exposed to various cyber risks, such as cyberattacks, data breaches, ransomware, phishing and identity theft, that could affect its critical infrastructure, public institutions, private sector and citizens34. The country needs to enhance its cyber resilience, strengthen its legal and regulatory framework, and cooperate with international partners to prevent and respond to cyber incidents34.
- Third-party risks. Romania relies heavily on external financing, trade and energy imports, which expose it to various third-party risks, such as currency fluctuations, trade disruptions, sanctions, geopolitical tensions and supply shocks12. The country needs to diversify its sources of funding, markets and energy, and reduce its external imbalances and debt burden to mitigate these risks12.
- Heightened regulatory changes and scrutiny. Romania faces increased regulatory challenges, both at the national and the EU level, that could affect its business environment, fiscal policy, rule of law and democratic institutions34. The country needs to comply with the EU’s economic governance framework, implement structural reforms, uphold its judicial independence and fight corruption to ensure its stability and integration34.
Agenda Strategică : Top 10 Risks for Romania in 2024?
Bard: Here are the top 10 risks for Romania in 2024, according to various sources and experts:
- Global Economic Slowdown and Geopolitical Tensions: The global economy is facing headwinds from rising inflation, interest rates, and the war in Ukraine, which could dampen demand for Romanian exports and slow down domestic growth. Furthermore, geopolitical tensions in the region could disrupt trade and investment flows.
- Public Debt Burden and Fiscal Challenges: Romania’s public debt is relatively high compared to other European countries, putting pressure on the government’s ability to respond to economic shocks and manage public finances responsibly. Fiscal discipline will be crucial to maintain investor confidence and avoid a sovereign debt crisis.
- Labor Market Challenges and Skill Shortages: Romania’s labor market is characterized by low productivity, skills mismatches, and an aging workforce. Addressing these challenges will be essential to boost competitiveness and support sustainable economic growth.
- Reform of Public Administration and Judiciary: Corruption and inefficiencies in the public sector hinder Romania’s economic performance and deter foreign investment. Deep-rooted reforms of the public administration and judiciary are needed to improve governance and attract more foreign direct investment.
- Infrastructure Deficiencies and Regional Development Gaps: Romania’s infrastructure, particularly in transportation and energy, needs significant investment to improve connectivity and support economic growth. Addressing regional development gaps and ensuring equal access to infrastructure across the country is also crucial for sustainable growth.
- Digital Transformation and Technological Advancements: Romania needs to accelerate its digital transformation and embrace new technologies to enhance productivity, competitiveness, and innovation. Investments in education, skills development, and research and development are essential for the digital economy.
- Energy Security and Climate Change Adaptation: Romania’s energy security is vulnerable to external shocks, and the country needs to diversify its energy sources and reduce its dependence on fossil fuels. Climate change adaptation measures are also needed to mitigate natural disasters and protect infrastructure.
- Public Health and Healthcare Challenges: Romania faces challenges in improving public health outcomes and access to quality healthcare services. Addressing these issues will require investments in preventive care, primary healthcare, and improving hospital infrastructure.
- Social Inequalities and Demographic Trends: Addressing social inequalities and promoting social mobility is essential to maintain social cohesion and ensure equitable economic opportunities. Demographic trends, including an aging population and declining birth rates, pose challenges for labor force participation and social security.
- Institutional Reform and Governance Strengthening: Strengthening institutions, promoting transparency, and combating corruption are critical for improving governance and creating a more business-friendly environment. This will attract investment, boost economic growth, and enhance Romania’s reputation as a reliable partner.
Managing and mitigating these risks will require a comprehensive and coordinated approach from the Romanian government, businesses, and civil society. Investing in education, skills development, infrastructure, innovation, and digital transformation will be crucial for Romania’s long-term economic success.
2023
BNR: Harta riscurilor la adresa stabilității financiare a României – CdG, 19.01.23
- Daniel Dăianu, Consiliul Fiscal: Putem evita recesiunea în 2023. Caracteristicile și riscurile perioadei pe care o trăim – CdG, 27.12.23
Perspectivele pentru economia României pe termen mediu – BT Macro Focus, 20.01.23
- Factorii de risc pentru dinamica economiei României în trimestrele următoare: nivelul ridicat de incertitudine și tendința recentă de deteriorare a climatului macroeconomic mondial; tensiunile geo-politice; deciziile de politică economică pe plan intern, inclusiv ritmul de implementare a reformelor structurale; modificările climatice.
Principalele riscuri estimate de companii în România sunt legate de criza energetică, macroeconomie şi modificarea legislaţiei – Allianz Risk Barometer / agerpres, 17.01.23
Riscuri și provocări macroeconomice: Perspective pentru 2023 – Cosmin Marinescu, 10.12.22
exercițiu de sinteză cu AI
Agenda Strategică : Top 10 Risks for Romania in 2023?
ChatGPT : I cannot predict with certainty what the top 10 risks for Romania in 2023 will be, as they can be influenced by many factors and can change over time. However, some potential risks for Romania in 2023 could include:
- Economic instability: Economic instability in Romania or in other countries could negatively impact the country’s economy.
- Political uncertainty: Political uncertainty in Romania or in other countries could lead to changes in policies that could negatively impact the country.
- Cybersecurity: Cybersecurity risks could increase as technology continues to evolve and cyber threats become more sophisticated.
- Climate change: Romania is vulnerable to the effects of climate change such as drought and floods, which could negatively impact agriculture, infrastructure and cause other economic disruptions.
- Energy security: Romania’s dependence on energy imports could leave it vulnerable to disruptions in energy supplies.
- Natural disasters: Romania is prone to natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, and landslides, which can cause significant damage to infrastructure and disrupt economic activity.
- Social unrest: Romania has a history of social unrest, which could be sparked by issues such as economic inequality or political corruption.
- Migration: Romania has a large number of migrants, and changes in migration patterns in the region could impact the country.
- Geopolitical tensions: Romania is located in a region with various geopolitical tensions, which could lead to destabilization and negatively impact the country.
- Pandemics: Romania, like any other country, is vulnerable to pandemics such as COVID-19, which can have a significant impact on public health and the economy.
2021
Vulnerabilitățile României: capturarea elitelor de către grupuri de interese, acapararea mass-media de către oameni de afaceri și politicieni corupți, deriva către conservatorism – GlobalFocus, 26.11.21
5 riscuri importante pentru România, dincolo de patimile politice zilnice – Dan Sultănescu, 5.11.21