Riscuri Globale 2024 / 2020>2030

agenda 2024 – tendințe, prognoze
agenda 2023 – tendințe, prognoze / bilanțuri
agenda 2022 – tendințe, prognoze / bilanțuri		riscuri românia 20>30
riscuri globale 20>30
mega-tendințe 2030+

2024

Five risks to watch in Europe for 2024 – EIU, 04.24
EIU’s latest report dives into five risks that businesses should watch in Europe as uncertainty over the region’s political, economic and geopolitical outlook deepens.

Global Risks Report 2024 – World Economic Forum, 10.01.23

  • The Global Risks Report explores some of the most severe risks we may face over the next decade, against a backdrop of rapid technological change, economic uncertainty, a warming planet and conflict. As cooperation comes under pressure, weakened economies and societies may only require the smallest shock to edge past the tipping point of resilience.
  • the report, here.
  • Top 5 Global Risks of 2024 – Charles Schwab, 18.12.23

These are the biggest global risks we face in 2024 and beyond – WEF, 10.01.24

Global Risk Report 2024: The risks are growing — but so is our capacity to respond – WEF, 10.01.24

Top Ten Global Risks for 2024 – Mathew Burrows, Robert A. Manning, Stimson Center, 5.01.24
Persistent conflict in Africa, the Middle East, and Ukraine, the consequences of climate change, and emerging technologies may pose heightened risks this year.

Top Risks 2024 – Eurasia Group, 3.01.24

  • Three wars will dominate world affairs: Russia vs. Ukraine, now in its third year; Israel vs. Hamas, now in its third month; and the United States vs. itself, ready to kick off at any moment.
  • There are plenty of bright spots. Most of the rest of all those elections, especially the big ones (India, the European Union, Indonesia, Mexico), aren’t troubled at all. And then there’s a big issue you might find surprising since it’s less gloomy than usual: The US and China will be the adults in the room this year.
  • brief summaries of the 10 most important risks

Top Risks 2024 – GZERO Media Live, 8.01.24

  • Ian Bremmer and a panel of leading geopolitics experts discuss Eurasia Group’s newly released annual Top Risks report, which forecasts the global political threats for 2024.
  • The lead authors of the report, Ian Bremmer, founder and president of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, and Cliff Kupchan, Eurasia Group’s chairman, will be joined by
    • Susan Glasser, staff writer at The New Yorker and co-author of “The Divider: Trump in the White House, 2017-2021”;
    • Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein, CEO & President of the International Peace Institute and former United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights;
    • Marietje Schaake, International Policy Fellow, Stanford Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence, and former European Parliamentarian
  • in a GZERO Media live event moderated by GZERO’s publisher, Evan Solomon.

Welcome to Europe’s year of anxiety – Mujtaba Rahman, Eurasia Group / Politico, 17.01.24
The risk in 2024 is that far from a geopolitical EU, a more insular bloc will emerge instead.

The US vs. Itself — and Other Top Global Risks in 2024 – Ian Bremmer, TED, 9.01.24

  • 2024 will be a dangerous year for the world, says Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media. Forecasting the top geopolitical risks set to play out in the months to come, he untangles what’s in store for the war in Ukraine, the state of the Israel-Hamas conflict and the tensions putting democracy in the United States to the test — all while AI continues to evolve faster than governments can regulate it.

8 Simmering Threats You Shouldn’t Ignore in 2024 – FP, 2.01.24
These are the international disputes that are currently flying under the radar but could emerge as major flash points in the coming year. By Catherine Osborn, Elisabeth Braw, Sushant Singh, Natia Seskuria, Lynne O’Donnell, Matthew Kroenig, John R. Deni, and Folahanmi Aina

The top 10 crises the world can’t ignore in 2024 – International Rescue Comitee, 21.12.23

Geopolitical Risks in 2024 – Bloomberg Surveillance, 9.01.24

  • Emily Roland, John Hancock Investment Management Co-Chief Investment Strategist, says the Fed’s ‘pivot party’ over rate cuts has led to a hangover in the equity market to start the year. Brooke Sutherland, Bloomberg Opinion columnist, walks through a hectic week for Boeing and the airlines sector. Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group founder, outlines his top ten risks in geopolitics for 2024. Nadia Martin Wiggen, Svelland Capital Director, expects a seasonal slowdown in global oil production amid low crude prices.

Biggest economic threat in ’24? Geopolitics – Kate Marino, axios, 11.12.23

The big risks facing the world in 2024 – Frida Gittis, CNN, 27.12.23

Global Risk Forecast 2024 – Crisis24, 12.12.23

  • Compiled by Crisis24’s team of intelligence analysts, the 2024 Global Risk Forecast is the prominent industry report that examines key events most likely to disrupt operations in the new year. In addition to analysis of geopolitical events and categories, the report includes 8 comprehensive security risk assessment rating maps. Together, the report and risk assessment maps provide you with the context and clarity you need to make informed decisions in the near-to-medium term. 

What to Watch in 2024: Outlooks for the Year Ahead from Teneo’s Geopolitical Risk Team – Teneo, 6.12.23

Risk outlook 2024 – EIU, 10.23
Though EIU expects modest global growth in 2024, continued monetary tightening, supply chain disruptions and geopolitical conflict could weigh heavily on the global economy next year. EIU’s Risk outlook 2024 explores how geopolitical tensions, the advent of new technologies and persistent environmental threats could upset the outlook in 2024.

Risk in Focus 2024: Macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty – ECIIA European Confederation of Institutes of IA, 25.10.23

2024 is the year to get serious about risk management. Here’s how – WEF Agenda, 8.01.23

AI: What are the risks in 2024? – The Economist, 26.12.23
Regulators are wrong to focus on existential risks

2023

Global Risks Report 2023 – World Economic Forum, 11.01.22
As we stand on the edge of a low-growth and low-cooperation era, tougher trade-offs risk eroding climate action, human development and future resilience.

Global Risks Report 2023: Dr. Lorna Friedman on Health Risks – Marsh McLennan, 20.01.23

  • Financial pressures, chronic healthcare capacity issues, and intensifying climate conditions are the biggest threats to human health. Businesses should expect to evaluate their ESG plans, risk mitigation strategies, and benefit schemes to support workers. Mercer’s Dr. Lorna Friedman discusses health risks for 2023.

Top Risks 2023 – Eurasia Group, 3.01.23
We’re (mostly) through the pandemic. Russia has no way to win in Ukraine. The European Union is stronger than ever. NATO rediscovered its reason for being. The G7 is strengthening. Renewables are becoming dirt cheap. American hard power remains unrivaled. Midterms in the United States were decidedly normal … and many of the candidates posing the biggest threat to democracy (especially those who would have had authority over elections) lost their races. Meanwhile, Donald Trump is the weakest he has been since he became president, with a large number of Republicans preparing to take him on for the GOP nomination. 

Top Risks of 2023 – GZERO Media Live, 3.01.23

Speaking during this GZERO Media live event are:

  • Ian Bremmer, President and Founder, Eurasia Group and GZERO Media
  • Cliff Kupchan, Chairman, Eurasia Group
  • Anna Ashton, Director, China Corporate Affairs and US-China, Eurasia Group
  • Franck Gbaguidi, Senior Analyst, Climate, Energy & Resources, Eurasia Group
  • Rob Kahn, Managing Director, Global Macro-Geoeconomics, Eurasia Group
  • Evan Solomon, Publisher, GZERO Media (moderator)

Rogue Russia and Maximum Xi: Top 10 Global Political Risks in 2023 – Amanpour and Company, 6.01.23

  • Putin’s war in Ukraine is not the only global political risk looming over 2023. A series of international challenges lie ahead as China u-turns on its zero-COVID policy amid continuing protests in Iran. Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, tells Walter Isaacson what to expect on the world stage this year.

The Top Ten Global Risks of 2023 – Mathew Burrows, Robert A. Manning, Stimson Center, 4.01.23

  • Drawing on our many years of experience in forecasting global risks and trends at the U.S. Intelligence Community’s National Intelligence Council, where we were tasked with providing U.S. leaders with long-range analysis and insights, we have identified the top global risks in 2023 from a U.S. and global perspective.

Global Forecast 2023: The Top 23 Risks and Opportunities for 2023 – Atlantic Council, 12.22

  • Another world-shaking, world-reordering war in Europe. Brewing fears of war on an even greater scale in Asia. A coronation in China and political upheaval across the democratic world. Climate-induced catastrophes and emboldened movements to mitigate and adapt to them. The worst energy crisis in a half century and worst food crisis in over a decade. Spiraling inflation and the specter of global recession. A less acute but still-raging, still-hugely disruptive pandemic. Epochal ferment in social media and technology more broadly.
  • The leaders of the Atlantic Council’s sixteen programs and centers gathered to take stock of these and other developments and trends over the past year, peer into the future, and predict the biggest global risks and opportunities that 2023 could bring.

Previziuni Bitdefender: Dispozitivele IoT, atacurile ransomware şi SMS-urile de la hackeri, printre ameninţările cibernetice din 2023 – agerpres, 17.01.23

A C-suite united on cyber-ready futures – PwC, 10.22
Findings from the 2023 Global Digital Trust Insights

The Risks in CEE’s 2023 Security Landscape – Visegrad Insight, 19.01.23
In the opaque security terrain of 2023, there are many concerning elements from Russia’s continued invasion of Ukraine to adverse market trends. However, the inherent risks also have embedded opportunities for the West and Europe if they are capable of capitalising on unfavourable environments.

Conflicts to Watch in 2023 – CFR, 4.01.23
For CFR’s annual Preventive Priorities Survey, U.S. foreign policy experts assessed the likelihood and impact of thirty potential conflicts that could emerge or escalate in 2023.

2023 Risk Assessment Map – Global Guardian, 01.23

Stephen Walt on the Underweighted Risks of 2023 – FP, 27.12.22
A realist POV on the war in Ukraine, competition with China, COVID, and more. By Ravi Agrawal, the editor in chief of Foreign Policy

economice

Risk outlook 2023 – The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), 12.22
The ripple effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, US monetary tightening and an economic slowdown in China will weigh on the economy next year, with global growth slowing to only 1.6%. The Europe energy crisis, global inflation and inter-state cyberwar also pose political and economic risks across key regions.

The top five risks in 2023 – Barclays Bank, 11.22

Risk in Focus 2023 – Chatered Institute of Internal Auditors, 10.22

‘Hidden’ Risks, Opportunities, And Surprises For The Global Economy In 2023 – Fitch Solutions, 13.01.23

A World Rebalancing: Key Risks in 2023 – S&P Global, 11.01.23

Top Global Risks of 2023 – Charles Schwab, 01.23

  1. China’s reopening
  2. Central banks overtighten
  3. Ukraine war broadens
  4. Mortgage shock
  5. European energy crisis

The 10 Biggest Risks And Threats For Businesses In 2023 – Edward Segal, Forbes, 1.01.23

Economic ‘mega threats’ – star economist Nouriel Roubini on the dangers lurking in 2023 – DW News, 31.12.22

  • Top economist Nouriel Roubini speaks to DW on what he calls the ‘mega threats’ facing the globe in the coming year and beyond. The past year was dire for the global economy but what does 2023 hold? The IMF says the eurozone could narrowly avoid a recession. The rise of AI could call millions of jobs into question. Alongside the conflict in Ukraine, China’s tension with Taiwan appears to be growing. India will overtake China to become the world’s most populous country. This new year could see more economic upheaval than the last.

High Rates, Slow China, Broken World: Three Risks for 2023 – CNBC, 11.22

  • Tom Orlik, Chief Economist Bloomberg Economics, speaks at the 2022 Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore.

2022

Nouriel Roubini on 10 ‘megathreats’ to our world and how to stop them – Channel 4, 12.22

  • Nouriel Roubini is an economist, a professor in New York, a global economic consultant and an author who, amongst many distinguishing things, was one of those who foresaw the 2008 credit crunch and financial crisis.
  • His latest work is called ‘Megathreats’, and it details 10 trends that make it more likely than not that we are heading for a global economic crash of stagnant growth, debt crises and high inflation that will cause decades of dystopian suffering and injustice. No wonder they call him Dr. Doom. In this episode, Nouriel joins Krishnan to talk about climate change, job-displacing artificial intelligence and our future.

Nouriel Roubini: Megathreats – Commonwealth Club of California, 10.22

  • In the 1970s, the United States faced stagflation: high rates of inflation combined with stagnant employment and growth. Global economist Nouriel Roubini predicts we are heading toward another Great Stagflation that will be difficult to recover from.
  • Is it too late to avoid this economic catastrophe? Financial and geopolitical certainties that we once took for granted have disappeared, and Roubini says we are now facing a period of severe instability, conflict and chaos. He offers a sobering analysis of 10 “megathreats” that are interconnected, immense in scale, and bearing down on us. Hear more as Roubini predicts what is likely to unfold if we don’t reverse course and act now.
    • Nouriel Roubini Professor of Economics, New York University’s Stern School of Business; Author, MegaThreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, And How to Survive Them
    • In Conversation with Barry Eichengreen George C. Pardee and Helen N. Pardee Professor of Economics and Political Science, University of California, Berkeley

Global Risks Report 2022 – WEF, 11.01.22
The Global Risks Report series tracks global risks perceptions among risk experts and world leaders in business, government, and civil society. It examines risks across five categories: economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal, and technological.

What to Worry About in 2022 – CFR, 13.01.22

  • Our panelists discuss potential and ongoing crises that may erupt or escalate in 2022, as well as their global political implications. This event explores the results of the 2022 Preventive Priorities Survey.

Global Foresight 2022 – Atlantic Council, 12.21
In this year’s installment, which is part of the Atlantic Council Strategy Papers series, Mathew Burrows and Anca Agachi identify ten trends that are transforming the world and guide you through three divergent visions for what world those trends could produce by 2030. Burrows and Robert A. Manning pick the top twelve risks and opportunities awaiting the world in the coming year, assessing the likelihood that each will occur. And Peter Engelke spots six “snow leopards”—under-the-radar phenomena that could have major unexpected impacts, for better or worse, in 2022 and beyond.

Top Risks 2022 – Eurasia Group, 3.01.22
As we enter 2022, the lack of global leadership that characterizes our G-Zero World is clearer than ever. That’s not a good thing.

Top Risks 2022 – Gzero, 3.01.22

2022 Top Risks: US & China Domestic Dysfunction (Not US-China) – Gzero, 4.01.22

10 risk scenarios that could impact global growth and inflation in 2022 – EIU, 10.21

2021

Cele mai mari 10 riscuri pentru economia mondială – bloomberg, 17.12.21

Ce se află în spatele amenințărilor cu un „blackout” de energie? Un raport militar bazat pe analizele experților – sibiu100, 2.11.21

Cele mai mari zece riscuri identificate de manageri în 2021: întreruperile de activitate, o nouă pandemie şi incidentele cibernetice, la vârf – ZF, 6.08.21

The Global Risks Report 2021 – WEF, 19.01.21

  • The 16th edition of the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report analyses the risks from societal fractures—manifested through persistent and emerging risks to human health, rising unemployment, widening digital divides, youth disillusionment, and geopolitical fragmentation. Businesses risk a disorderly shakeout which can exclude large cohorts of workers and companies from the markets of the future. Environmental degradation—still an existential threat to humanity—risks intersecting with societal fractures to bring about severe consequences. Yet, with the world more attuned to risk, lessons can be drawn to strengthen response and resilience. In 2020, the risk of a pandemic became reality. As governments, businesses, and societies grapple with COVID-19, societal cohesion is more important than ever.

Global Risks Report 2021 – World Economic Forum, 13.01.21

  • The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2021 is published at the beginning of a demanding decade. Fractures caused by the pandemic are widening gaps in health, jobs and digital access, with young people most at risk of missing out on future opportunities. Meanwhile, worsening environmental and technological risks challenge leadership’s role in healing social fragmentation and ensuring a brighter collective future.
  • With news of a COVID-19 vaccine and renewed willingness to seek multilateral solutions, the end of 2020 has provided new opportunities to tackle today’s most pressing issues. Join prominent experts to dive into the reforms and actions that are needed to overcome the economic, health and societal challenges that the world has faced over the past year.

Another Year of Crisis? Assessing the Top National Security and Market Risks for 2021 – CFR, 14.01.21

Top Risks 2021 – Eurasia Group, 4.01.21

  • At the start of 2021, the United States is the most powerful, politically divided, and economically unequal of the world’s industrial democracies. China is America’s strongest competitor, a state capitalist, authoritarian, and techno-surveillance regime that is increasingly mistrusted by most G20 countries. Germany and Japan are much more stable, but the most powerful leaders both have had in decades are out (former prime minister Abe Shinzo) or on their way out (Chancellor Angela Merkel). Russia is in decline and blames the US and the West for its woes. And the world is in the teeth of the worst crisis it has experienced in generations.

Eurasia Group: The Biggest Global Risks For 2021 – NPR, 4.01

Ian Bremmer Explains the Top Risk of 2021: Divided US Domestic Politics – GZERO Media, 4.01

  • Eurasia Group released its annual report on the top 10 geopolitical risks that will shape the year.

Top Risks 2021: Eurasia Group’s Biggest Global Threats – GZERO, 4.01

  • Following one of the most tumultuous years in recent history, what should we be prepared for in 2021?

The top ten risks and opportunities for 2021 – Mathew J. Burrows, Robert A. Manning, Atlantic Council, 16.12.20

2020

What if Covid-19 isn’t our biggest threat? – The Guardian, 26.04.20

  • But as the moral philosopher Toby Ord argues in his new book, The Precipice, we are much less adept at anticipating potential catastrophes that have no precedent in living memory.
  • Ord works through each potential threat and examines the likelihood of it occurring in the next century. For example, the probability of a supernova causing a catastrophe on Earth he estimates to be less than one in 50m. Even adding all the naturally occurring risks together (which includes naturally occurring viruses), Ord contends that they do not amount to the existential risk presented individually by nuclear war or global heating.
  • Complex global networks certainly increase our vulnerability to viral pandemics and cyberattacks, but neither of those outcomes qualify as a serious existential risk in Ord’s book. The pandemics he is concerned about are not of the kind that break out in the wet markets of Wuhan, but rather those engineered in biological laboratories.
  • Thus Ord believes the next century will be a dangerously precarious one. If we make the right decisions, he foresees a future of unimaginable flourishing. If we make the wrong ones, he maintains that we could well go the way of the dodo and the dinosaurs, exiting the planet for good.
  • Ord insists that he is not a pessimist. There are constructive measures to be taken. Humanity, he says, is in its adolescence, and like a teenager that has the physical strength of an adult but lacks foresight and patience, we are a danger to ourselves until we mature. He recommends that, in the meantime, we slow the pace of technological development so as to allow our understanding of its implications to catch up and to build a more advanced moral appreciation of our plight.

TOP RISKS 2020: CORONAVIRUS EDITION – Eurasia Group, 19.03.20

  • We warned in January that globalization was under siege; we were more right about that than we would like to be. Travel to the US from Europe and China, and travel to Europe from just about anywhere, has now been halted. The coronavirus outbreak has dealt a body blow to the global flow of goods and services, accelerating the process we wrote about. The public health emergency has also deepened the geopolitical recession, as the US shows little interest in quarterbacking an international response, and China aims to take advantage of the vacuum. More broadly, the pandemic has forced all nations to look inward, speeding both this recession and the process of deglobalization.

Top Global Political Risks in 2020 – 20.02.20

According to GeoQuant’s report entitled, “The Year Ahead,” global political risk is forecast to decline in the first half of the year and accelerate in the second half, but overall remain under the levels reported by the same group in 2016. Analysts looked at 20 distinct fundamental political risk factors in 51 countries, measured daily, and noticed three main trends:

  • A scarcity in elections in key emerging and frontier markets will ensure less volatility in the global political environment.
  • Global trade risks and policy risks will decrease.
  • The world will see a “soft Brexit” and less uncertainty about political risks in the United States, despite the approaching 2020 general elections.

The Global Risks Report 2020 – World Economic Forum, 15.01.20

  • The Global Risks Report 2020 presents the major risks the world will be facing in the coming year. It stresses the need for a multistakeholder approach to addressing the world’s greatest challenges, and comes ahead of the World Economic Forum’s 50th Annual Meeting in Davos-Klosters, where the focus is Stakeholders for a Cohesive and Sustainable World.

Top Risks for 2020 – Eurasia Group, 6.01.20

  • 2020 is a tipping point. We’ve lived with growing levels of geopolitical risk for nearly a decade, but without a true international crisis. Outside of geopolitics, global trends have been strongly favorable. That’s now changing.

The Top 10 Geopolitical Risks for the World in 2020 – Ian Bremmer, Time, 5.01.20