|Agenda 2022 – tendințe, prognoze / bilanțuri|
Agenda 2021 – tendințe, prognoze / bilanțuri
Agenda 2020 – tendințe, prognoze / bilanțuri
- Daniel Dăianu, Consiliul Fiscal: Putem evita recesiunea în 2023. Caracteristicile și riscurile perioadei pe care o trăim – CdG, 27.12.23
Perspectivele pentru economia României pe termen mediu – BT Macro Focus, 20.01.23
- Factorii de risc pentru dinamica economiei României în trimestrele următoare: nivelul ridicat de incertitudine și tendința recentă de deteriorare a climatului macroeconomic mondial; tensiunile geo-politice; deciziile de politică economică pe plan intern, inclusiv ritmul de implementare a reformelor structurale; modificările climatice.
Principalele riscuri estimate de companii în România sunt legate de criza energetică, macroeconomie şi modificarea legislaţiei – Allianz Risk Barometer / agerpres, 17.01.23
Agenda Strategică : Top 10 Risks for Romania in 2023?
ChatGPT : I cannot predict with certainty what the top 10 risks for Romania in 2023 will be, as they can be influenced by many factors and can change over time. However, some potential risks for Romania in 2023 could include:
- Economic instability: Economic instability in Romania or in other countries could negatively impact the country’s economy.
- Political uncertainty: Political uncertainty in Romania or in other countries could lead to changes in policies that could negatively impact the country.
- Cybersecurity: Cybersecurity risks could increase as technology continues to evolve and cyber threats become more sophisticated.
- Climate change: Romania is vulnerable to the effects of climate change such as drought and floods, which could negatively impact agriculture, infrastructure and cause other economic disruptions.
- Energy security: Romania’s dependence on energy imports could leave it vulnerable to disruptions in energy supplies.
- Natural disasters: Romania is prone to natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, and landslides, which can cause significant damage to infrastructure and disrupt economic activity.
- Social unrest: Romania has a history of social unrest, which could be sparked by issues such as economic inequality or political corruption.
- Migration: Romania has a large number of migrants, and changes in migration patterns in the region could impact the country.
- Geopolitical tensions: Romania is located in a region with various geopolitical tensions, which could lead to destabilization and negatively impact the country.
- Pandemics: Romania, like any other country, is vulnerable to pandemics such as COVID-19, which can have a significant impact on public health and the economy.
Global Risks Report 2023 – World Economic Forum, 11.01.22
As we stand on the edge of a low-growth and low-cooperation era, tougher trade-offs risk eroding climate action, human development and future resilience.
- Global Risks 2023: Tensions Peak between Urgent Cost of Living Crisis and Sustainable Climate Action – WEF, 11.01.23
- Criza costului vieţii, o consecinţă a inflaţiei agravată de războiul din Ucraina şi redeschiderea economiei după pandemia de Covid, este cel mai mare risc mondial pentru următorii doi ani, arată Forumul Economic Mondial, înaintea reuniunii anuale din 2023, transmite AFP, citată de Agerpres.
- Forumul Economic Mondial avertizează că dacă guvernele nu vor reuşi să gestioneze criza actuală “riscă să creeze tensiuni sociale fără precedent, deoarece investiţiile în sănătate, educaţie şi dezvoltare economică dispar, ceea ce erodează şi mai mult coeziunea socială”.
- The Biggest Global Risks of 2023 – Visual Capitalist, 13.01.23
- This is what chief communication officers see as the biggest risks and opportunities in 2023 – WEF, 16.01.23
Global Risks Report 2023: Dr. Lorna Friedman on Health Risks – Marsh McLennan, 20.01.23
- Financial pressures, chronic healthcare capacity issues, and intensifying climate conditions are the biggest threats to human health. Businesses should expect to evaluate their ESG plans, risk mitigation strategies, and benefit schemes to support workers. Mercer’s Dr. Lorna Friedman discusses health risks for 2023.
Top Risks 2023 – Eurasia Group, 3.01.23
We’re (mostly) through the pandemic. Russia has no way to win in Ukraine. The European Union is stronger than ever. NATO rediscovered its reason for being. The G7 is strengthening. Renewables are becoming dirt cheap. American hard power remains unrivaled. Midterms in the United States were decidedly normal … and many of the candidates posing the biggest threat to democracy (especially those who would have had authority over elections) lost their races. Meanwhile, Donald Trump is the weakest he has been since he became president, with a large number of Republicans preparing to take him on for the GOP nomination.
Top Risks of 2023 – GZERO Media Live, 3.01.23
Speaking during this GZERO Media live event are:
- Ian Bremmer, President and Founder, Eurasia Group and GZERO Media
- Cliff Kupchan, Chairman, Eurasia Group
- Anna Ashton, Director, China Corporate Affairs and US-China, Eurasia Group
- Franck Gbaguidi, Senior Analyst, Climate, Energy & Resources, Eurasia Group
- Rob Kahn, Managing Director, Global Macro-Geoeconomics, Eurasia Group
- Evan Solomon, Publisher, GZERO Media (moderator)
Rogue Russia and Maximum Xi: Top 10 Global Political Risks in 2023 – Amanpour and Company, 6.01.23
- Putin’s war in Ukraine is not the only global political risk looming over 2023. A series of international challenges lie ahead as China u-turns on its zero-COVID policy amid continuing protests in Iran. Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, tells Walter Isaacson what to expect on the world stage this year.
- Assessment of Top Global Risks 2023: Economics, Business & Geopolitics – Japan Society, 24.01.23
- Drawing on our many years of experience in forecasting global risks and trends at the U.S. Intelligence Community’s National Intelligence Council, where we were tasked with providing U.S. leaders with long-range analysis and insights, we have identified the top global risks in 2023 from a U.S. and global perspective.
Global Forecast 2023: The Top 23 Risks and Opportunities for 2023 – Atlantic Council, 12.22
- Another world-shaking, world-reordering war in Europe. Brewing fears of war on an even greater scale in Asia. A coronation in China and political upheaval across the democratic world. Climate-induced catastrophes and emboldened movements to mitigate and adapt to them. The worst energy crisis in a half century and worst food crisis in over a decade. Spiraling inflation and the specter of global recession. A less acute but still-raging, still-hugely disruptive pandemic. Epochal ferment in social media and technology more broadly.
- The leaders of the Atlantic Council’s sixteen programs and centers gathered to take stock of these and other developments and trends over the past year, peer into the future, and predict the biggest global risks and opportunities that 2023 could bring.
A C-suite united on cyber-ready futures – PwC, 10.22
Findings from the 2023 Global Digital Trust Insights
- CEE findings from the 2023 Global Digital Trust Insights Survey – PwC, 10.22
- Directorii generali din ECE pun pe locul 2 riscul de atac cibernetic asupra companiilor în 2023 – PwC/ agerpres, 11.22
The Risks in CEE’s 2023 Security Landscape – Visegrad Insight, 19.01.23
In the opaque security terrain of 2023, there are many concerning elements from Russia’s continued invasion of Ukraine to adverse market trends. However, the inherent risks also have embedded opportunities for the West and Europe if they are capable of capitalising on unfavourable environments.
- Noul șef al Agenţiei de Stat pentru Securitate Naţională din Bulgaria, despre războiul din Ucraina, migraţie şi alte riscuri pentru securitate – BTA, 4.01.23
Conflicts to Watch in 2023 – CFR, 4.01.23
For CFR’s annual Preventive Priorities Survey, U.S. foreign policy experts assessed the likelihood and impact of thirty potential conflicts that could emerge or escalate in 2023.
- Great Power Conflict and Development of Nuclear Weapons Are the Top Global Concerns for 2023, CFR Survey Finds – CFR, 4.01.23
2023 Risk Assessment Map – Global Guardian, 01.23
- January Risk Barometer – Global Guardian, 12.01.23
Risk outlook 2023 – The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), 12.22
The ripple effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, US monetary tightening and an economic slowdown in China will weigh on the economy next year, with global growth slowing to only 1.6%. The Europe energy crisis, global inflation and inter-state cyberwar also pose political and economic risks across key regions.
The top five risks in 2023 – Barclays Bank, 11.22
Risk in Focus 2023 – Chatered Institute of Internal Auditors, 10.22
‘Hidden’ Risks, Opportunities, And Surprises For The Global Economy In 2023 – Fitch Solutions, 13.01.237
- A Geopolitical “Muddle Through” in 2023 – GeoQuant / Fitch Solutions, 4.01.23
- Year Ahead in Political Risk: Developed Markets – GeoQuant / Fitch Solutions, 6.01.23
- Year Ahead in Political Risk: Emerging & Frontier Markets – GeoQuant / Fitch Solutions, 9.01.23
A World Rebalancing: Key Risks in 2023 – S&P Global, 11.01.23
Top Global Risks of 2023 – Charles Schwab, 01.23
- China’s reopening
- Central banks overtighten
- Ukraine war broadens
- Mortgage shock
- European energy crisis
The 10 Biggest Risks And Threats For Businesses In 2023 – Edward Segal, Forbes, 1.01.23
Economic ‘mega threats’ – star economist Nouriel Roubini on the dangers lurking in 2023 – DW News, 31.12.23
- Top economist Nouriel Roubini speaks to DW on what he calls the ‘mega threats’ facing the globe in the coming year and beyond. The past year was dire for the global economy but what does 2023 hold? The IMF says the eurozone could narrowly avoid a recession. The rise of AI could call millions of jobs into question. Alongside the conflict in Ukraine, China’s tension with Taiwan appears to be growing. India will overtake China to become the world’s most populous country. This new year could see more economic upheaval than the last.
High Rates, Slow China, Broken World: Three Risks for 2023 – CNBC, 11.22
- Tom Orlik, Chief Economist Bloomberg Economics, speaks at the 2022 Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore.
Nouriel Roubini on 10 ‘megathreats’ to our world and how to stop them – Channel 4, 12.22
- Nouriel Roubini is an economist, a professor in New York, a global economic consultant and an author who, amongst many distinguishing things, was one of those who foresaw the 2008 credit crunch and financial crisis.
- His latest work is called ‘Megathreats’, and it details 10 trends that make it more likely than not that we are heading for a global economic crash of stagnant growth, debt crises and high inflation that will cause decades of dystopian suffering and injustice. No wonder they call him Dr. Doom. In this episode, Nouriel joins Krishnan to talk about climate change, job-displacing artificial intelligence and our future.
Nouriel Roubini: Megathreats – Commonwealth Club of California, 10.22
- In the 1970s, the United States faced stagflation: high rates of inflation combined with stagnant employment and growth. Global economist Nouriel Roubini predicts we are heading toward another Great Stagflation that will be difficult to recover from.
- Is it too late to avoid this economic catastrophe? Financial and geopolitical certainties that we once took for granted have disappeared, and Roubini says we are now facing a period of severe instability, conflict and chaos. He offers a sobering analysis of 10 “megathreats” that are interconnected, immense in scale, and bearing down on us. Hear more as Roubini predicts what is likely to unfold if we don’t reverse course and act now.
- Nouriel Roubini Professor of Economics, New York University’s Stern School of Business; Author, MegaThreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, And How to Survive Them
- In Conversation with Barry Eichengreen George C. Pardee and Helen N. Pardee Professor of Economics and Political Science, University of California, Berkeley
- Ukraine crisis could trigger cascading risks globally – Chatham House, 9.03.22
The effects on the wider world from the Ukraine invasion go far beyond the waves of shock and horror being felt from this escalating conflict.
- The Ukraine war and threats to food and energy security – CH, 13.04.22
Cascading risks from rising prices and supply disruptions
Global Risks Report 2022 – WEF, 11.01.22
The Global Risks Report series tracks global risks perceptions among risk experts and world leaders in business, government, and civil society. It examines risks across five categories: economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal, and technological.
- Global Risks Report 2022: What you need to know – WEF, 11.01.22
What to Worry About in 2022 – CFR, 13.01.22
- Our panelists discuss potential and ongoing crises that may erupt or escalate in 2022, as well as their global political implications. This event explores the results of the 2022 Preventive Priorities Survey.
Global Foresight 2022 – Atlantic Council, 12.21
In this year’s installment, which is part of the Atlantic Council Strategy Papers series, Mathew Burrows and Anca Agachi identify ten trends that are transforming the world and guide you through three divergent visions for what world those trends could produce by 2030. Burrows and Robert A. Manning pick the top twelve risks and opportunities awaiting the world in the coming year, assessing the likelihood that each will occur. And Peter Engelke spots six “snow leopards”—under-the-radar phenomena that could have major unexpected impacts, for better or worse, in 2022 and beyond.
- Top 12 risks and opportunities in 2022 for the world, from a US perspective – Atlantic Council, 12.21
Top Risks 2022 – Eurasia Group, 3.01.22
As we enter 2022, the lack of global leadership that characterizes our G-Zero World is clearer than ever. That’s not a good thing.
Top Risks 2022 – Gzero, 3.01.22
2022 Top Risks: US & China Domestic Dysfunction (Not US-China) – Gzero, 4.01.22
- Vulnerabilitățile României: capturarea elitelor de către grupuri de interese, acapararea mass-media de către oameni de afaceri și politicieni corupți, deriva către conservatorism – GlobalFocus, 26.11.21
- 5 riscuri importante pentru România, dincolo de patimile politice zilnice – Dan Sultănescu, 5.11.21
Cele mai mari 10 riscuri pentru economia mondială – bloomberg, 17.12.21
The Global Risks Report 2021 – WEF, 19.01.21
- The 16th edition of the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report analyses the risks from societal fractures—manifested through persistent and emerging risks to human health, rising unemployment, widening digital divides, youth disillusionment, and geopolitical fragmentation. Businesses risk a disorderly shakeout which can exclude large cohorts of workers and companies from the markets of the future. Environmental degradation—still an existential threat to humanity—risks intersecting with societal fractures to bring about severe consequences. Yet, with the world more attuned to risk, lessons can be drawn to strengthen response and resilience. In 2020, the risk of a pandemic became reality. As governments, businesses, and societies grapple with COVID-19, societal cohesion is more important than ever.
- These are the world’s greatest threats in 2021 – WEF, 19.01
- These are the top risks for business in the post-COVID world – Carolina Klint, 19.01
- Climate change will be sudden and cataclysmic. We need to act fast – Peter Gieger, 19.01
- The World Needs to Wake Up to Long-Term Risks – WEF, 19.01
- Food got more expensive in 2020. This chart shows how – Statista, 18.01
Global Risks Report 2021 – World Economic Forum, 13.01.21
- The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2021 is published at the beginning of a demanding decade. Fractures caused by the pandemic are widening gaps in health, jobs and digital access, with young people most at risk of missing out on future opportunities. Meanwhile, worsening environmental and technological risks challenge leadership’s role in healing social fragmentation and ensuring a brighter collective future.
- With news of a COVID-19 vaccine and renewed willingness to seek multilateral solutions, the end of 2020 has provided new opportunities to tackle today’s most pressing issues. Join prominent experts to dive into the reforms and actions that are needed to overcome the economic, health and societal challenges that the world has faced over the past year.
Top Risks 2021 – Eurasia Group, 4.01.21
- At the start of 2021, the United States is the most powerful, politically divided, and economically unequal of the world’s industrial democracies. China is America’s strongest competitor, a state capitalist, authoritarian, and techno-surveillance regime that is increasingly mistrusted by most G20 countries. Germany and Japan are much more stable, but the most powerful leaders both have had in decades are out (former prime minister Abe Shinzo) or on their way out (Chancellor Angela Merkel). Russia is in decline and blames the US and the West for its woes. And the world is in the teeth of the worst crisis it has experienced in generations.
Eurasia Group: The Biggest Global Risks For 2021 – NPR, 4.01
Ian Bremmer Explains the Top Risk of 2021: Divided US Domestic Politics – GZERO Media, 4.01
- Eurasia Group released its annual report on the top 10 geopolitical risks that will shape the year.
Top Risks 2021: Eurasia Group’s Biggest Global Threats – GZERO, 4.01
- Following one of the most tumultuous years in recent history, what should we be prepared for in 2021?
What if Covid-19 isn’t our biggest threat? – The Guardian, 26.04.20
- But as the moral philosopher Toby Ord argues in his new book, The Precipice, we are much less adept at anticipating potential catastrophes that have no precedent in living memory.
- Ord works through each potential threat and examines the likelihood of it occurring in the next century. For example, the probability of a supernova causing a catastrophe on Earth he estimates to be less than one in 50m. Even adding all the naturally occurring risks together (which includes naturally occurring viruses), Ord contends that they do not amount to the existential risk presented individually by nuclear war or global heating.
- Complex global networks certainly increase our vulnerability to viral pandemics and cyberattacks, but neither of those outcomes qualify as a serious existential risk in Ord’s book. The pandemics he is concerned about are not of the kind that break out in the wet markets of Wuhan, but rather those engineered in biological laboratories.
- Thus Ord believes the next century will be a dangerously precarious one. If we make the right decisions, he foresees a future of unimaginable flourishing. If we make the wrong ones, he maintains that we could well go the way of the dodo and the dinosaurs, exiting the planet for good.
- Ord insists that he is not a pessimist. There are constructive measures to be taken. Humanity, he says, is in its adolescence, and like a teenager that has the physical strength of an adult but lacks foresight and patience, we are a danger to ourselves until we mature. He recommends that, in the meantime, we slow the pace of technological development so as to allow our understanding of its implications to catch up and to build a more advanced moral appreciation of our plight.
TOP RISKS 2020: CORONAVIRUS EDITION – Eurasia Group, 19.03.20
- We warned in January that globalization was under siege; we were more right about that than we would like to be. Travel to the US from Europe and China, and travel to Europe from just about anywhere, has now been halted. The coronavirus outbreak has dealt a body blow to the global flow of goods and services, accelerating the process we wrote about. The public health emergency has also deepened the geopolitical recession, as the US shows little interest in quarterbacking an international response, and China aims to take advantage of the vacuum. More broadly, the pandemic has forced all nations to look inward, speeding both this recession and the process of deglobalization.
Top Global Political Risks in 2020 – 20.02.20
According to GeoQuant’s report entitled, “The Year Ahead,” global political risk is forecast to decline in the first half of the year and accelerate in the second half, but overall remain under the levels reported by the same group in 2016. Analysts looked at 20 distinct fundamental political risk factors in 51 countries, measured daily, and noticed three main trends:
- A scarcity in elections in key emerging and frontier markets will ensure less volatility in the global political environment.
- Global trade risks and policy risks will decrease.
- The world will see a “soft Brexit” and less uncertainty about political risks in the United States, despite the approaching 2020 general elections.
The Global Risks Report 2020 – World Economic Forum, 15.01.20
- The Global Risks Report 2020 presents the major risks the world will be facing in the coming year. It stresses the need for a multistakeholder approach to addressing the world’s greatest challenges, and comes ahead of the World Economic Forum’s 50th Annual Meeting in Davos-Klosters, where the focus is Stakeholders for a Cohesive and Sustainable World.
Top Risks for 2020 – Eurasia Group, 6.01.20
- 2020 is a tipping point. We’ve lived with growing levels of geopolitical risk for nearly a decade, but without a true international crisis. Outside of geopolitics, global trends have been strongly favorable. That’s now changing.
The Top 10 Geopolitical Risks for the World in 2020 – Ian Bremmer, Time, 5.01.20