Top Risks 2020 > 2030

rapoarte de risc internațional 2020 > 2030



Cele mai mari zece riscuri identificate de manageri în 2021: întreruperile de activitate, o nouă pandemie şi incidentele cibernetice, la vârf – ZF, 6.08.21


Global Risks Report 2021 – World Economic Forum, 13.01.21

  • The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2021 is published at the beginning of a demanding decade. Fractures caused by the pandemic are widening gaps in health, jobs and digital access, with young people most at risk of missing out on future opportunities. Meanwhile, worsening environmental and technological risks challenge leadership’s role in healing social fragmentation and ensuring a brighter collective future.
  • With news of a COVID-19 vaccine and renewed willingness to seek multilateral solutions, the end of 2020 has provided new opportunities to tackle today’s most pressing issues. Join prominent experts to dive into the reforms and actions that are needed to overcome the economic, health and societal challenges that the world has faced over the past year.

The Global Risks Report 2021 (pdf) – WEF, 19.01

  • The 16th edition of the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report analyses the risks from societal fractures—manifested through persistent and emerging risks to human health, rising unemployment, widening digital divides, youth disillusionment, and geopolitical fragmentation. Businesses risk a disorderly shakeout which can exclude large cohorts of workers and companies from the markets of the future. Environmental degradation—still an existential threat to humanity—risks intersecting with societal fractures to bring about severe consequences. Yet, with the world more attuned to risk, lessons can be drawn to strengthen response and resilience. In 2020, the risk of a pandemic became reality. As governments, businesses, and societies grapple with COVID-19, societal cohesion is more important than ever.

Another Year of Crisis? Assessing the Top National Security and Market Risks for 2021 – CFR, 14.01.21


Top Risks 2021 (pdf) – Eurasia Group, 4.01.21

  • At the start of 2021, the United States is the most powerful, politically divided, and economically unequal of the world’s industrial democracies. China is America’s strongest competitor, a state capitalist, authoritarian, and techno-surveillance regime that is increasingly mistrusted by most G20 countries. Germany and Japan are much more stable, but the most powerful leaders both have had in decades are out (former prime minister Abe Shinzo) or on their way out (Chancellor Angela Merkel). Russia is in decline and blames the US and the West for its woes. And the world is in the teeth of the worst crisis it has experienced in generations.

Eurasia Group: The Biggest Global Risks For 2021 – NPR, 4.01

Ian Bremmer Explains the Top Risk of 2021: Divided US Domestic Politics – GZERO Media, 4.01

  • Eurasia Group released its annual report on the top 10 geopolitical risks that will shape the year.

Top Risks 2021: Eurasia Group’s Biggest Global Threats – GZERO, 4.01

  • Following one of the most tumultuous years in recent history, what should we be prepared for in 2021?

The top ten risks and opportunities for 2021Mathew J. Burrows, Robert A. Manning, Atlantic Council, 16.12.20



2021



What if Covid-19 isn’t our biggest threat? – The Guardian, 26.04.20

  • But as the moral philosopher Toby Ord argues in his new book, The Precipice, we are much less adept at anticipating potential catastrophes that have no precedent in living memory.
  • Ord works through each potential threat and examines the likelihood of it occurring in the next century. For example, the probability of a supernova causing a catastrophe on Earth he estimates to be less than one in 50m. Even adding all the naturally occurring risks together (which includes naturally occurring viruses), Ord contends that they do not amount to the existential risk presented individually by nuclear war or global heating.
  • Complex global networks certainly increase our vulnerability to viral pandemics and cyberattacks, but neither of those outcomes qualify as a serious existential risk in Ord’s book. The pandemics he is concerned about are not of the kind that break out in the wet markets of Wuhan, but rather those engineered in biological laboratories.
  • Thus Ord believes the next century will be a dangerously precarious one. If we make the right decisions, he foresees a future of unimaginable flourishing. If we make the wrong ones, he maintains that we could well go the way of the dodo and the dinosaurs, exiting the planet for good.
  • Ord insists that he is not a pessimist. There are constructive measures to be taken. Humanity, he says, is in its adolescence, and like a teenager that has the physical strength of an adult but lacks foresight and patience, we are a danger to ourselves until we mature. He recommends that, in the meantime, we slow the pace of technological development so as to allow our understanding of its implications to catch up and to build a more advanced moral appreciation of our plight.

Top Global Political Risks in 2020 – 20.02.20

According to GeoQuant’s report entitled, “The Year Ahead,” global political risk is forecast to decline in the first half of the year and accelerate in the second half, but overall remain under the levels reported by the same group in 2016. Analysts looked at 20 distinct fundamental political risk factors in 51 countries, measured daily, and noticed three main trends:

  • A scarcity in elections in key emerging and frontier markets will ensure less volatility in the global political environment.
  • Global trade risks and policy risks will decrease.
  • The world will see a “soft Brexit” and less uncertainty about political risks in the United States, despite the approaching 2020 general elections.

The Global Risks Report 2020World Economic Forum, 15.01.20

  • The Global Risks Report 2020 presents the major risks the world will be facing in the coming year. It stresses the need for a multistakeholder approach to addressing the world’s greatest challenges, and comes ahead of the World Economic Forum’s 50th Annual Meeting in Davos-Klosters, where the focus is Stakeholders for a Cohesive and Sustainable World.

These are the 5 biggest global risks in 2020


TOP RISKS 2020: CORONAVIRUS EDITIONEurasia Group, 19.03.20

  • We warned in January that globalization was under siege; we were more right about that than we would like to be. Travel to the US from Europe and China, and travel to Europe from just about anywhere, has now been halted. The coronavirus outbreak has dealt a body blow to the global flow of goods and services, accelerating the process we wrote about. The public health emergency has also deepened the geopolitical recession, as the US shows little interest in quarterbacking an international response, and China aims to take advantage of the vacuum. More broadly, the pandemic has forced all nations to look inward, speeding both this recession and the process of deglobalization.

Top Risks for 2020Eurasia Group, 6.01.20

  • 2020 is a tipping point. We’ve lived with growing levels of geopolitical risk for nearly a decade, but without a true international crisis. Outside of geopolitics, global trends have been strongly favorable. That’s now changing.

The Top 10 Geopolitical Risks for the World in 2020 – Ian Bremmer, Time, 5.01.20


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