agenda 2020 – tendințe, prognoze

perspective ale anului 2020, întrevăzute în ajun

Perspective geostrategice 2020: Pandemia accelerează cele patru forțe care transformă peisajul global al afacerilor – EY, 20.05.20

  • În definirea planurilor de dezvoltare, directorii executivi trebuie să țină seama de patru forțe majore care transformă peisajul global al afacerilor: globalizarea și apariția unui nou tip de regionalizare; accelerarea concurenței globale în domeniul tehnologiei; demografiile îmbătrânite și cursa împotriva schimbărilor climatice. Pandemia COVID-19 nu modifică fundamental arhitectura gestionării eficiente a riscurilor geopolitice, dar va accelera traiectoria fiecăreia dintre aceste tendințe, se arată în raportul EY Perspective geostrategice în 2020.

Caspian Report – 21.01.20

  • Things are shaking up in Europe in 2020. #Brexit is happening, new pipelines are coming online, and a strategic arms build-up is destroying the control pacts.

Caspian Report – 15.01.20

  • Some years are overshadowed by finances, some by politics, and some by conflict. In Asia, all three will linger throughout 2020. China’s economic slowdown will continue to delineate the regional economic outlook. Additionally, due to uncertainties over global trade agreements, many governments are left with no tools to address their local issues. This has given rise to economic inequality and financial austerity measures, which have resulted in social unrest. So, let’s talk about the risks, trends and overall geopolitics of Asia-Pacific in 2020.

Top Risks in 2020 – by Eurasia Group, World Economic Forum

2020 in Europe: Brexit, climate targets, Balkans enlargement – France24, 13.01.20

  • It’s set to be an historic year for the European Union. The bloc will lose a member for the first time in its history when the United Kingdom leaves on January 31. But there’s plenty else happening in 2020, from climate goals to potential new members, plus foreign policy challenges that the EU may or may not be best equipped to tackle. We ask our panel of MEPs about the EU’s priorities for 2020.

Asia Society – 09.01.20

  • Historian and author Niall Ferguson assesses the state of the world in 2020 — and beyond — in a keynote address delivered as part of the 12th Ambassador Burton Levin Memorial Lecture Series. Asia Society Hong Kong Chairman Ronnie C. Chan made introductory remarks. (35 min., 22 sec.) 

Forecast of China’s Economy for 2020 – The National Comitee on China-US Relations, 9.01.20

  • As the trade war and political frictions between the United States and China continue to affect both countries and the global economy, leading Chinese and American economists convened in New York on January 9 to provide a forecast for China’s economy in the coming year, including macro-economic trends, reform possibilities, in-depth analysis of key sectors, and expected challenges and opportunities in 2020 and beyond.
  • The half-day conference, presented by the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations and Peking University’s China Center for Economic Research, was a rare opportunity to hear directly from influential experts about the evolution of China’s economy, changing bilateral investment prospects, and policy developments that will affect economic outlooks in both countries.

Ce ne aduce 2020 în tehnologie și știință – PressOne, 9.01.20

  • Anii ’20 sunt aici și se pare că vrem să-i începem în forță. Pe lângă „frumoasele rachete” pe care și le trimit militarii cadou unii altora, sperăm ca omenirea să facă niște pași interesanți și în privința tehnologiei pașnice. Vom trimite un nou rover pe Marte, ne pregătim să ducem din nou oameni pe Lună, automobilul electric își face loc în viața noastră, iar internetul va deveni mai rapid pe dispozitivele noastre mobile.

Schieffer Series: 2020 Challenges Ahead – Center for Strategic International Studies, 9.01.20

  • As we step into the new year, CSIS experts Kathleen Hicks, Stephanie Segal and Sarah Ladislaw will join Beverly Kirk, Director of CSIS’s Smart Women Smart Power Initiative and Bob Schieffer, to discuss a range of issues to look out for in 2020. Panelists will cover challenges ranging from the manifestations of U.S.-China tensions and Brexit to the United States’ withdrawal from global engagement and leadership, climate change and domestic stability.

2020: What’s to come? – Al Jazeera, 7.01.20

  • In an ever-more confusing world where the news cycle gets shorter and more intense, how does faith help make sense of things and provide comfort throughout dark days? We’ll discuss the highs and lows of 2019 and ask our panel of faith leaders what they’re looking forward to in 2020.

How the world will change in 2020 – Financial Times, 6.01.20

  • The FT’s US managing editor Peter Spiegel, Moscow bureau chief Henry Foy, chief foreign affairs commentator Gideon Rachman and Asia editor Jamil Anderlini give their predictions for the coming year and discuss the threats to the liberal world order.
  • Martin Wolf CBE, Associate Editor and Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times on the biggest risks for 2020 (11.19)

Les Experts du Dessous des Cartes/ ARTE

Thomas Gomart – 2020 : le monde change?

  • Quelles seront les conséquences des élections américaines de l’automne 2020, fin de l’ère Trump ou second mandat ? Comment vont évoluer les relations entre la Chine, les États-Unis et l’Union européenne ? Que deviendront ces différents mouvements qui secouent des peuples avides d’écrire une nouvelle page de leur Histoire, en Algérie, à Hong Kong, au Liban, en Irak….? Quels sont les risques de crises ? En 2020, le monde change ?

Pascal Boniface – Quelles guerres dans les années 2020 ?

  • Années 2020 : connaîtrons-nous la (les) guerre(s) ? Pascal Boniface est géopolitologue, fondateur et directeur de l’Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques (IRIS). Il fait un tour d’horizon des conflits d’aujourd’hui et de demain, et identifie les principaux foyers des menaces : les ambitions de puissance russes, chinoises, nord-coréennes, les rivalités sino-américaines pour le leadership mondial, la guerre larvée Iran/Arabie Saoudite, la re-nucléarisation du monde, sans oublier les nouvelles guerres : celle du Cyber et de l’IA.

Strafor: Three Geopolitical Trends for 2020

Nikkei Asian Review

Tendinţele în materie de tehnologie în 2020 – ZF, 31.12.19

  • Zburatul în spaţiu va putea fi accesibil contra unui cost de 250.000 de dolari, iar companiile de telefonie mobilă vor începe să funcţioneze pe surse de energie durabile
  • Protestele mişcării Extinction Rebellion au ajutat ca problemele climatice să ajungă pe agenda companiilor din sector tehnologic. Mişcarea militează pentru protejarea mediului prin constrângerea nonviolentă a acţiunilor guvernamentale de a evita colapsul ecologic.
  • Producătorii de telefoane mobile şi de bunuri de larg consum vor fi nevoiţi să aibă procese de producţie mai ecologice şi să facă telefoane mai uşor de reparat. (…)
  • Este aşteptat ca până la sfârşitul anului 2020 să se ajungă la un număr de 125 de operatori care vor introduce tehnologia 5G.
  • O tendinţă pentru anul 2020 va fi calculatorul cuantic, iar Google a promis că, începând cu 2020, un asemenea calculator va fi disponibil pentru utilizatori, dar nu a oferit detalii în acest sens, scrie BBC. Funcţionarea calculatorului cuantic se bazează pe fenomene cuantice şi nu pe bază de tranzistori, precum calculatoarele folosite în mod curent. Un astfel de calculator permite efectuarea unui număr mai mare de operaţii într-un timp mult mai scurt. Calculatoarele cuantice ar putea crea progrese în chimie, industria farmaceutică şi inginerie.

This is how companies can compete in the 2020s – World Economic Forum, 18.12.19

Martin Reeves, Senior Partner & Managing Director & Chairman, BCG Henderson Institute:

  • In the 2020s, the importance of defying the average will be greater than ever and more important than the choice of sector in which you operate.
  • To compete, businesses must build the capacity for continual reinvention which is necessary for a faster changing environment.
  • To achieve this, leaders will have to build hybrid human-machine learning organizations, master the science of organizational change and harness human diversity.

20 trenduri pentru 2020 – 29.12.19

20 trenduri pentru 2020” continuă seria Social Innovation Solutions începuta in 2019 și propune publicului 20 de subiecte cu sens pentru următorii ani. Principalele 4 categorii sunt: Tehnologie, Schimbări climatice și energie, Educație, muncă și wellbeing, Media & Consumer Trends.

Conversații despre cele 20 de trenduri vor avea loc pe parcusul anului în 40 de întâlniri în 25 de orașe din România, implicând peste 3000 de tineri, antreprenori sau reprezentanți ai mediului public în pregătirea ediției 5 a celei mai importante conferințe despre viitor: Future Summit 2020, 18 si 19 noiembrie.

Antonia Colibășanu: A view from Eastern Europe: predictions for 2020 – 9.12.19

  • The most important and stringent problem that is left for the EU to solve in 2020 is that of Brexit. Even if the Brits have their own mind made up, a big decision needs to be made on the British divorce – and, as in the case of all big decisions within the EU, unanimity is needed. So, the decision will have to satisfy the Germans on market access, Luxemburg on financial issues, the Irish on border issues and the Spanish on Gibraltar, to name just a few in the EU that will likely have to do some “deep thinking” over anything relating to Brexit. That is difficult to say the least – anytime in history.
  • 2020 is also the first year in office for the EU Commission. The accommodation period will likely be short – not only due to the current political and economic problems of the EU and its members but also because of the fact that the newly reformed multiannual financial framework will be negotiated this year. For Eastern Europe and the Balkans, this process will show, one more, proofs for the EU commitment to the EU bordering and the neighboring regions (or its no-commitment).
  • The other element that will pose more challenges for Europe (EU and non-EU members alike) is the increasingly important role Turkey plays for the region. Ankara no longer feels satisfied with its “Western ally” status – it seeks to grow its influence in the Middle East and the Balkans and negotiates directly over the migration crisis, reaching out to Germany directly. While its economics is still weakened, the political game Turkey is playing poses new risks and asks for the EU position on security and trade matters both. As Turkey resets its relationship with the West (the Western Europe and the U.S. both), it is the Balkans and Eastern Europe – the border zones, that will feel the growing tension.”

What will be the biggest stories of 2020? – The Economist, 21.11.19

  • The battle for the White House, a possible global recession, Beethoven the eco-warrior, nurses taking centre stage and a controversial Olympic Games. These are The Economist’s predictions for the top stories of 2020.

The World in 2020, as forecast by The Economist – Brookings, 20.04.20

  • I learned that machines may already be quicker than humans in learning and better than us at predicting the future. Less happily, I learned that on issues that matter a lot, the analysis published by some venerable international institutions is absolutely unreliable.