Agenda 2023 – tendințe, prognoze

top risks 20>30
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mega-tendințe 2030+
Agenda 2022 – tendințe, prognoze / bilanțuri
Agenda 2021 – tendințe, prognoze / bilanțuri
Agenda 2020 – tendințe, prognoze / bilanțuri

generale // românia // societale // economice // tehnologice / inovație-creativitate

europa / ucraina / internațional


2023: Tendințe și perspective – Inițiativa pentru Cultură Democratică Europeană (ICDE), 2.01.23

Trends That Will Define the Coming YearsAntonia Colibasanu, Geopolitical Futures, 3.01.23
They include deglobalization, stagflation and the bursting of the tech bubble.


6 experts at Davos share what’s on the horizon for 2023 – WEF, 14.01.23

Will 2023 Learn From The Crises of 2022? – Global Stage/ GZERO Media, 3.01.23

  • For Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group and GZERO, the main reason for hope in 2023 is that this year some people realized that there are big problems worth fixing. Although we definitely live in a G-zero world with a vacuum of global leadership, he adds, we’ve also seen unprecedented Western unity that would not have happened without Russia invading Ukraine. Ian believes that resistance to a negotiated solution to the war will come from the developing world and that Elon Musk is definitely complicating things with how he’s running Twitter.
  • Microsoft President Brad Smith discussed the UN Sustainable Development Goals, which at their halfway point he sees as a “glass half full, half empty” but questions how progress is being measured. Also, Smith sees Russia turning to civilians in Ukraine because its military is losing against Ukrainian soldiers, which he regards as the opposite of what the world agreed to do after World War II. On climate, he doesn’t see things in good shape after COP27 but hopes today’s multiple ongoing crises will push us to do more things together.

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In Order To CHANGE YOUR LIFE In 2023, You Need To DO THESE 3 Things First! – Yuval Noah Harari / Tom Bilyeu, 3.01.23

  • Artificial intelligence has become more front and center in the past few weeks with A.I. art and AI generated images becoming virtually inescapable. What can you do to thrive during these massive changes?

The World Ahead 2023 – The Economist, 12.22

  • Ten trends to watch in the coming year – By Tom Standage, Editor, The World Ahead 2023
    • AFTER TWO years in which the pandemic was the force shaping the immediate future, the main driver now is the war in Ukraine. In the coming months the world will have to grapple with unpredictability around the conflict’s impact on geopolitics and security; the struggle to control inflation; chaos in energy markets; and China’s uncertain post-pandemic path. To complicate matters further, all these things are tightly coupled, like an interlocking series of gear wheels.

The World Ahead 2023: five stories to watch out for – The Economist, 27.12.22

  • What stories should you be following in 2023? From India becoming the world’s most populous country, to an illegal drug that might be approved as a medicine, The Economist offers its annual look at the year ahead.

Year Ahead 2023 – Project Syndicate, 01.23

  • The year 2022 was one of grim and grisly returns: the return of major war – and nuclear brinkmanship – to Europe; the return of high inflation and the threat of stagflation globally; and the return of famine, dire poverty, and other problems against which the developing world had been making steady progress. With all these developments poised to continue, the question now is whether solutions will be found to counter the forces of discord and disintegration.


românia


Anul politic 2023 – Cristian Andrei / Ioana Dogioiu, spotmedia, 3.01.23
La finalul lui 2023 vom fi deja într-o logică pre-electorală pentru alegerile europene și cu tatonări, cel puțin, din partea celor care doresc să fie președinte. Deci sunt doi factori care vor schimba intenția de vot: succesul sau insuccesul gestionării crizei și lansarea unor lideri populari în cursa prezidențială.


Perspectivele pentru economia României pe termen mediuBT Macro Focus, 20.01.23

  • Previziunile actualizate indică perspective de creștere pentru economia națională cu dinamici anuale de 4,6% în 2022, 2,6% în 2023, respectiv 3,8% în 2024.
    • Activitatea din economia națională se va redinamiza în 2024, evoluție determinată de temperarea presiunilor inflaționiste și implementarea programelor lansate de Uniunea Europeană după incidența pandemiei COVID-19. În acest scenariu previzionăm continuarea fluxurilor investiționale post-pandemie în trimestrele următoare, evoluție susținută de nivelul redus al costurilor reale de finanțare, potențialul ridicat de convergență economică europeană și accesarea programelor europene.
  • Conform scenariului central actualizat investițiile productive din România ar putea crește cu ritmuri anuale în accelerare de la 5,3% în 2022, la 6,4% în 2023, respectiv 6,7% în 2024, cu implicații pozitive la nivelul climatului din piața forței de muncă și impact de antrenare pentru celelalte componente ale PIB-ului. Rata medie anuală a șomajului ar putea să scadă de la 5,4% în 2022, la 5,2% în 2023, respectiv 5,1% în 2024.
  • La nivelul cererii externe nete prognozăm creșterea exporturilor și importurilor totale (bunuri și servicii) cu dinamici medii anuale de 10%, respectiv 11,4% în intervalul 2022 – 2024, după cum se poate observa în al treilea grafic din partea dreaptă.
    • Atragem atenția cu privire la factorii de risc pentru dinamica economiei României în trimestrele următoare: nivelul ridicat de incertitudine și tendința recentă de deteriorare a climatului macroeconomic mondial; tensiunile geo-politice; deciziile de politică economică pe plan intern, inclusiv ritmul de implementare a reformelor structurale; modificările climatice.

Tendinţe pentru economia românească în 2023. Ce va fi în 2023 pe burse, cu bugetul, în infrastructură, pe piaţa auto, pe piaţa rezidenţială, în agricultură, în retail, în industria alimentară, în bănci, asigurări, pe piaţa de birouri şi în IT&C? Pariurile redacţiei – ZF, 5.01.23

Ce va fi în 2023: dobânzile se stabilizează şi vor începe să scadă, băncile vor fi destul de reticente cu acordarea de credite noi, piaţa imobiliară rămâne blocată pentru că cererea de credite scade, problema lui Isărescu va fi să nu scadă cursul valutar, nu să crească, adie vânt rece în IT şi atenţie la dosarul Roşia Montană – Cristian Hostiuc, ZF, 8.01.23



societale

Edelman Trust Barometer: 4 steps to rebuilding trust – WEF, 18.01.23
A lack of trust – driven by economic anxiety, disinformation, mass-class divide and leadership failures – has left us polarized.


Teamă de război sau speranțe pentru pace – care sunt așteptările oamenilor din Europa Centrală și de Sud-Est pentru 2023? – DW, 27.12.22

Global predictions for 2023 – IPSOS, 09.22
Global citizens are struggling to be optimistic about 2023 as most express concern about the state of the economy, the environment and world security.



economice


IMF Upgrades Outlook For the Global Economy in 2023 – Time, 31.01.23

  • The outlook for the global economy is growing slightly brighter as China eases its zero-COVID policies and the world shows surprising resilience in the face of high inflation, elevated interest rates and Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine.
  • That’s the view of the International Monetary Fund, which now expects the world economy to grow 2.9% this year. That forecast is better than the 2.7% expansion for 2023 that the IMF predicted in October, though down from the estimated 3.4% growth in 2022.

Şefa FMI se aşteaptă ca prognozele globale de creştere pentru 2023 să fie menţinute la 2,7% – reuters, 13.01.23

Global Economic Prospects: Sharp, Long-lasting Slowdown to Hit Developing Countries Hard – WB, 10.01.23
Growth in advanced economies is projected to slow from 2.5% in 2022 to 0.5% in 2023. Over the past two decades, slowdowns of this scale have foreshadowed a global recession.


Global Economic Outlook: Is this the End of an Era? – Davos 2023, WEF, 21.01.23

Chief Economists Say Global Recession Likely In 2023, But Pressures On Food, Energy and Inflation May Be Peaking – WEF, 14.01.23

73% of CEOs around the world believe global economic growth will decline over the next 12-months, the most pessimistic outlook in over a decade – PwC, 16.01.23

Economic outlook & predictions for 2023 from Central Europe’s CFOs


PwC’s 26th Annual Global CEO Survey – 16.01.23
Evolve or die, say 4,410 chief executives in our 2023 CEO Survey. But are they spending enough time on business reinvention? Many tell us no.

  • 26th Annual CEO Survey – Central and Eastern Europe
    The war in Ukraine has put the global spotlight on Central and Eastern Europe. From Germany’s eastern border to the frontier of China, CEOs throughout the region are dealing with the fallout from the conflict, which is also driving uncertainty around the world.

PwC’s 26th Annual CEO Survey Launch – PwC, 16.01.23

  • Leaders need to empower and engage their people like never before if they are to withstand the pressures of today’s economic environment and long-term disruptors.
  • Hear from our Global Chairman Bob Moritz live at the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting in Davos as he discusses the key survey findings and insights we’ve collected from 4,410 CEOs across 105 different countries and territories.

How to shift strategy for a new geostrategic era in 2023 – EY, 12.22

  • The importance of geopolitics to corporate strategies is at its highest level in a generation; executives need to manage political opportunities and risks.
  • Governments’ pursuit of self-sufficiency will be driven by geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties and environmental sustainability.
  • Geopolitical developments are likely to continue to influence supply chain strategies, shift investment destinations and push up costs for companies.

11 prognoze despre lumea business-ului în 2023 Ionuț Bonoiu, Forbes România, 4.01.23

  • Goldman Sachs – This Cycle Is Different
  • JP Morgan – A bad year for the economy, a better year for markets
  • Morgan Stanley – Applying the Lessons of a Turbulent Year to 2023
  • Blackrock – A new investment playbook
  • HSBC – Looking for the Silver Lining
  • Barclays – Living with shock and awe
  • UBS – Calm waters turn choppy
  • Credit Suisse – A fundamental reset
  • BNP Parisbas – Investing in an age of transformation
  • Deutsche Bank – Resilience versus recession
  • ING – ‘May he live in interesting times’

The 2023 outlook research report dump – Financial Times, 4.01.23
Amid the holiday torpor, some semi-useful content has actually floated around LinkedIn — extensive round-ups of investment bank and asset manager outlook reports on what to expect this year.


The outlook for 2023 is uncertain, but here’s what we know about the global labour marketAllen Blue, Co-Founder and Vice-President, Products, LinkedIn, WEF, 18.01.23

Global Wage Report 2022-23 – ILO, 11.22
The impact of COVID-19 and inflation on wages and purchasing power.



Business trends, risks and people to watch in 2023 – Financial Times, 2.01.23
What to look for this year in the corporate world in sectors from energy to private capital and technology.

Being ready for anything is top priority for 2023Peter Thal Larsen, Reuters, 3.01.23
Anyone trying to think about what 2023 will bring is confronted by a staggering array of possibilities. This is why many chief executives and investors have dispensed with forecasts, preferring to plan for a range of scenarios. Some of these are specific: What happens if Chinese President Xi Jinping orders an invasion of Taiwan? What if Putin unleashes tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine? What if a cyberattack cripples critical infrastructure? In many cases, just envisaging possibilities requires a leap of imagination.

Three Economic Stories to Watch in 2023 – Adam Tooze, FP, 01.23
The downturn in the U.S. housing market, the yield curve control of the Bank of Japan, and the debt crisis in Africa.

What Will the Global Economy Look Like in 2023?Walter Frick, HBR, 16.12.22
HBR asked three experts about what to expect for the economy in 2023, and how things have evolved since October.  


High Rates, Slow China, Broken World: Three Risks for 2023 – CNBC, 11.22

  • Tom Orlik, Chief Economist, Bloomberg Economics speaks at the 2022 Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore.

reziliența

5 ways digitalization can help build global resilience in 2023Börje Ekholm, President and Chief Executive Officer, Ericsson, WEF, 16.01.23

How to build resilience in 2023 and beyond – McKinsey, 12.22
2023 is likely to start off on a high note—of interest rates and cost of capital, that is. For companies to thrive in this “higher for longer” era, they need structural solutions that not only manage costs but also build resilience and drive long-term value creation.



energie / climă

What’s the global energy outlook for 2023? – WEF, 16.01.23

Why 2023 will be a year of climate actionLord Mark Malloch-Brown, President, Open Society Foundations, WEF, 16.01.23

apă / agri

Don’t Forget About Water in 2023Antonia Colibasanu, Geopolitical Futures, 18.01.23
This finite resource will have plenty of countries on edge in the coming year.

Four ways to make 2023 count in the pursuit of resilient and sustainable food systemsBerry Marttin, Member of the Executive Board, Rabobank, Agnes Kalibata, President, AGRA, WEF, 12.01.23



tehnologii


Gartner Top 10 Strategic Predictions for 2023 and Beyond – Gartner, 12.22
Is your organization ready to turn uncertainty into opportunity? These predictions help you (re)imagine what your organization might need to prepare for.

Tech Trends 2023 – Deloitte, 12.22
Deloitte’s 14th annual Tech Trends report explores the impact of emerging technologies on groundbreaking innovations and foundational business areas. Stories of pioneering organizations show what’s happening now, describe what’s new, and project what could be coming next.


A C-suite united on cyber-ready futures – PwC, 10.22
Findings from the 2023 Global Digital Trust Insights


New year’s resolutions for tech in 2023 – McKinsey, 6.01.23
McKinsey Technology leaders offer their insights on how business leaders can make the most of tech this year.
+ Where Is Tech Going in 2023? – HBR, 6.01.23


CES 2023: Key trends – WundermanThomas, 9.01.23

CES 2023: Tech Trends and Gadgets to Expect – WSJ, 3.01.23

  • The global trade show CES kicking off this week has been the place for startups to showcase their technologies to potential future partners and customers.
  • But the show has been disrupted by the pandemic the past couple of years, and a looming economic downturn has taken a toll on tech companies big and small.



inovație / creativitate


Innovation Report 2022 – Samsung, 16.01.23
Despre sustenabilitate și ESG, responsabilitatea consumatorilor și a companiilor, concepte precum Reboot, Rebuild sau economie circulară, precum și impactul pozitiv al tehnologiei în educație.

Clean energy, deeptech and food technology: the technology trends that will shape innovation in 2023 – BBVA, 2.01.23


The Future 100: 2023 – WundermanThompson, 01.23

Predictions 2023: Fortune Favors The Bold And Focused – Forrester, 01.23

Accenture Life Trends 2023: Control and Power – Accenture, 01.23
This year, people are seeking ways to adapt in an uncertain world.​ We’ve identified five emerging trends that will alter the power dynamic between brands and customers in the coming 12 months and beyond.


Journalism, media, and technology trends and predictions 2023Nic Newman, Reuters Institute, 10.02.23

Adobe Stock 2023 creative trends forecast: Seeking inspiration and authenticity – Adobe, 10.06.22




internaționale


Europe outlook 2023 – EIU, 12.22
Energy market dynamics in 2023 will be just as challenging for Europe as in 2022, and input costs will remain high for years. This will make some industries uncompetitive, leading to a loss of global market share. Our latest report, Europe outlook 2023, explores which sectors will be worst affected

EU: What lies ahead in 2023 – Euractiv, 01.23
In this special report, EURACTIV journalists look at what lies ahead when it comes to EU policy and politics in 2023 – the last full year for the current European Commission and Parliament before the next election in spring 2024.

Pe agenda UE în 2023: energie, război și competitivitate economică – kapital.bg, 4.01.23

Pivotal elections, cultural capitals, NATO’s next boss: Emerging Europe in 2023Craig Turp-Balazs, Emerging Europe, 31.12.22

Teamă de război sau speranțe pentru pace – care sunt așteptările oamenilor din Europa Centrală și de Sud-Est pentru 2023? – DW, 27.12.22


EU’s Assistance to Ukraine: Looking Ahead to 2023 – GLOBSEC, 12.22



What in the World Will Happen in 2023?Richard Haass, PS, 2.01.23
The sleeper story of the coming year will be Japan’s emergence as a major geopolitical actor. And, for the first time since the fall of the Shah in 1979, the future of the Islamic Republic will be in serious doubt.

23 things we think will happen in 2023 – Future Perfect/ Vox, 2.01.23
Will Biden and Trump remain the frontrunners? Will Putin remain in charge of Russia? Will China start a war? These and other forecasts of the year to come.


The Director’s Annual Lecture 2023 – Chatham House, 10.01.23
Bronwen Maddox looks ahead to the challenges of the year and sets out Chatham House’s recommendations for change.

  • What will progress look like on the climate agenda?
  • How will the new US Congress reposition America’s role in the world?
  • What does the North/South divergence on Russia’s war in Ukraine tell us about shared values and prospects for working together?
  • After a turbulent year, how will the UK recover its standing in Europe and beyond?

2023: The year we learn to stop worryingMark Leonard, Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR, 6.01.23
Ten predictions for what’s coming in the world of 2023. Plus a Tik-Tok bonus.

What to Watch in 2023 – GMFUS, 6.01.23

  • Transatlantic Technology Policy Pipeline 2023 – GMF, 12.22
    Technology will remain at the center of policy debates in the United States and the European Union in 2023, with implications for transatlantic cooperation. Here are GMF Digital’s end-of-year tech-related predictions and questions to be answered in the new year.

The World Next Year: What to Watch in 2023 – CFR, 12.22
In this special year-end episode, CFR Senior Fellow Carla Anne Robbins joins James M. Lindsay and Robert McMahon to review the biggest events of 2022 and the stories to keep an eye on next year. They discuss precarious U.S.-China relations, climate change, Russia’s war in Ukraine, Iran’s protests, the state of democracy globally, and more.

  • Visualizing 2023: Trends to Watch – CFR, 12.22
    Five CFR fellows highlight in charts and graphs some of the most pressing trends to follow in 2023, including the Asia-Pacific’s arms race, the changing relationship between India and Russia, and worsening brain drain in sub-Saharan Africa.

The Top 5 Foreign-Policy Trends We’ll Be Watching in 2023 – FP, 29.12.22
Your go-to guide for what stories to watch in the new year. By Robbie Gramer, a diplomacy and national security reporter at Foreign Policy, and Jack Detsch, a Pentagon and national security reporter at Foreign Policy


What’s Going to Be in Biden’s Inbox in 2023 – FP, 2.01.23
Russia, Ukraine, China, and nukes: Here are the biggest foreign policy challenges facing the U.S. next year. By Amy Mackinnon, Jack Detsch, Robbie Gramer, Rishi Iyengar, and Christina Lu

What to Expect From China in 2023 – FP, 22.12.22
Three experts predict how Beijing will manage China’s economy, the pandemic, protests, Taiwan, and relations with Washington. By Ravi Agrawal, the editor in chief of Foreign Policy.


Elections to Watch in 2023 – FP, 1.01.23
From Pakistan to Poland, here are this year’s biggest presidential and parliamentary races. By Allison Meakem, an assistant editor at Foreign Policy

Five Elections to Watch in 2023 – CFR, 12.22


Conflicts to Watch in 2023 – CFR, 4.01.23
For CFR’s annual Preventive Priorities Survey, U.S. foreign policy experts assessed the likelihood and impact of thirty potential conflicts that could emerge or escalate in 2023.

10 Conflicts to Watch in 2023 – FP, 1.01.23
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is still reverberating around the world—and setting the stage for more large-scale violence to come. By Comfort Ero, the president and CEO of the International Crisis Group, and Richard Atwood, executive vice president of the International Crisis Group

  • Will 2023 Be More Peaceful Than 2022? – FP, 23.12.22
    This year saw Russia invade Ukraine, China’s Xi Jinping secure a third term, and Iranians take to the streets. What will 2023 look like? By Emma Ashford, a senior fellow with the Reimagining U.S. Grand Strategy program at the Stimson Center, and Matthew Kroenig, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

The 20 humanitarian crises the world cannot ignore in 2023 — and what to do about themDavid Miliband, President, International Rescue Committee, WEF, 14.01.23


Why the World Feels Different in 2023 – FP, 12.01.23
From climate negotiations to sports to diplomacy, the global south is becoming more powerful. By Ravi Agrawal, the editor in chief of Foreign Policy