following – Nouriel Roubini

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Nouriel Roubini: Una dintre provocările unei țări ca România este că au plecat “creierele”. Ce trebuie făcut – 30.07.20

  • ”Trebuie să investiți mai mult în capitalul uman care există încă în țară. Doi: cred că România poate face mult mai multe reforme structurale, reforme instituționale, reforme judiciare și de alte feluri. Aveți nevoie de o strategie pe termen mediu și lung pentru a crește productivitatea și potențialul de creștere a țării pentru ca lumea să simtă că are oportunități de joburi, de venituri, de afaceri și antreprenoriat acasă. Economia suferă, trebuie să oferi ajutor pentru venituri pentru cei mai afectați. Cei ale căror locuri de muncă sunt în pericol sau au devenit șomeri sau sunt foarte săraci. În același timp trebuie să fii sigur că întreprinderile mici, afacerile mici, microîntreprinderile care sunt fără lichidități sau în insolvență să nu ajungă la faliment”, a declarat economistul.

Revisiting the White Swans of 2020 – 29.07.20

  • At the start of the year, when COVID-19 was barely on anyone’s radar outside of China, the global economy was entering a fraught phase, facing a range of potentially devastating tail risks. And though the pandemic has since turned the world on its head, all of these threats remain – and some have become more salient.
  • Why are financial markets blissfully ignoring these risks? After falling by 30-40% at the beginning of the pandemic, many equity markets have recovered most of their losses, owing to the massive fiscal-policy response and hopes for an imminent COVID-19 vaccine. The V-shaped recovery in markets indicates that investors are anticipating a V-shaped recovery in the economy.
  • The problem is that what was true in February remains true today: the economy could still quickly be derailed by another economic, financial, geopolitical, or public-health tail risk, many of which have persisted and, in some cases, grown more acute during the current crisis. Markets are not very good at pricing political and geopolitical – let alone environmental – tail risks, because their probability is difficult to assess. But, given the developments of the last few months, we should not be surprised if one or more white swans emerge to shake the global economy again before the year is out.

The Main Street Manifesto – 24.06.20

  • The historic protests sweeping America were long overdue, not just as a response to racism and police violence, but also as a revolt against entrenched plutocracy. With a growing number of Americans falling into unemployment and economic insecurity, while major corporations take bailouts and slash labor costs, something had to give.

The White Swans of 2020 – 17.02.20

  • Financial markets remain blissfully in denial of the many predictable global crises that could come to a head this year, particularly in the months before the US presidential election. In addition to the increasingly obvious risks associated with climate change, at least four countries want to destabilize the US from within.

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